• Fashion, Maslow and Facebook's control of social October 27, 2017 11:01 pm
    The fashion industry does not set fashions - it proposes them. It tries to work out the mood and the zeitgeist and looks for ideas that might express that. The same, increasingly, for Facebook - it cannot really decide how people use its products or what they see, only propose. 
    Benedict Evans
  • The scale of tech winners October 13, 2017 5:26 pm
    We all know, I think, that there are now far more smartphones than PCs, and we all know that there are far more people online now than there used to be, and we also, I think, mostly know that big tech companies today are much bigger than the big tech companies of the past. It’s useful, though, to put some real numbers on that, and to get a sense of use how much the scale has changed, and what that means.
    Benedict Evans
  • Winner-takes all effects in autonomous cars August 22, 2017 8:21 pm
    What winner-take-all effects could there be in autonomous cars? Are there network effects that would allow the top one or two companies to squeeze the rest out, as happened in smartphone or PC operating systems? Or might there be room for five or ten companies to compete indefinitely? And for what layers in the stack does victory give power in other layers? 
    Benedict Evans
  • GAFA's org structures as a platform for growth. August 9, 2017 8:29 pm
    Earlier this week I did a podcast with my colleague Steven Sinofsky talking about the management structures of Google, Apple. Facebook and Amazon ('GAFA'). These companies now have around 10 times more employees than they did a decade ago, yet they still manage to function, and function extremely well, producing a stream of great work. The interesting thing is that the management structures that they've used to achieve that are actually very different.
    Benedict Evans
  • Content isn't king July 16, 2017 10:30 am
    People in tech and media have been saying that ‘content is king’ for a long time - perhaps since the VHS/Betamax battle of the early 1980s, and perhaps longer. Content and access to content was a strategic lever for technology. I’m not sure how much this is still true.  Music and books don’t matter much to tech anymore, and TV probably won’t matter much either. 
    Benedict Evans
  • Creation and consumption July 14, 2017 9:49 pm
    It's common to say that PCs are for creation and mobile only for consumption, but both parts of this are wrong: most people never created on PCs, and far more is created on mobile. 
    Benedict Evans
  • Not even wrong - ways to dismiss technology May 26, 2017 6:32 pm
    How do we get beyond 'that's a toy!' and 'but everything looked like a toy!', and try actually to understand whether a new technology might matter? What are valid lines of reasoning, and what statements are 'not even wrong'?
    Benedict Evans
  • Ten Year Futures April 25, 2017 10:29 pm
    Looking forward 10 years, there are three primary technology that will change everything - cars, augmented reality and machine learning. But in the meantime, there ere huge changes around advertising, TV and retail that come from consumer behavior and industry dynamics, not tech, but will change just as much. 
    Benedict Evans
  • The first decade of augmented reality April 11, 2017 10:21 pm
    If augmented reality is the next multitouch - the next universal platform - what would that look like? What might we build?
    Benedict Evans
  • Cars and second order consequences March 30, 2017 5:37 am
    Electric and autonomy are rolling through the car industry, changing everything about it. But though they transform gasoline and car accidents, they could change a lot more besides - everything from cigarettes to parking. It's the second-order consequences that are hardest to see, but most interesting.
    Benedict Evans
  • The end of smartphone innovation March 23, 2017 3:45 pm
    Smartphones are still evolving, but we're on the upper slopes of the S-Curve. This means innovation is slowing, but also that iOS and Android are now unassailable. It's time to focus on what's next - voice, machine learning and, especially, augmented reality. 
    Benedict Evans
  • Voice and the uncanny valley of AI March 9, 2017 10:26 pm
    The trap that some voice UIs fall into is that you pretend the users are talking to HAL 9000 when actually, you've just built a better IVR, and have no idea how to get from the IVR to HAL. How can we find the mental models for this to work - to bring less rather than more friction? 
    Benedict Evans
  • Facebook and Snapchat: metrics versus creation February 17, 2017 8:56 pm
    Where Facebook is surfing user behaviour, Snapchat is trying to create entirely new experiences all the time, around camera, touch and mobile - around what makes mobile different to the PC.
    Benedict Evans
  • Mobile 2.0 January 31, 2017 10:00 pm
    Ten years after the iPhone, what assumptions can we leave behind? What do we build if we assume a billion people have a high-end smartphone, and forget about PCs?
    Benedict Evans
  • Asking the wrong questions January 12, 2017 2:35 am
    With fundamental technology change, we don't so much get our predictions wrong as make predictions about the wrong things.
    Benedict Evans
  • Cars as feature-phones January 11, 2017 4:50 pm
    Cars today are much like phones in 2007 - overloaded by features and badly in need of a new interface model, even as we move slowly towards autonomous cars, which will have no interfaces at all. 
    Benedict Evans
  • Mobile is eating the world December 9, 2016 4:00 pm
    As we pass 2.5bn smartphones on earth and head towards 5bn, and mobile moves from creation to deployment, the questions change. What's the state of the smartphone, machine learning and 'GAFA', and what can we build as we stand on the shoulders of giants?
    Benedict Evans
  • Cameras, ecommerce and machine learning November 20, 2016 8:46 pm
    Machine learning means every image ever taken can be searched or analyzed and insight extracted, at massive scale. Every glossy magazine archive is now structured data, and so is every video feed. How does this change retail?
    Benedict Evans
  • From mobile first to mobile native November 3, 2016 12:10 am
    What happens if you just forget about the PC altogether? But also, what happens if you forget about featurephones? What happens if you presume all of the sophistication that a modern smartphone has and a PC does not, and if you also presume that, with 650m iPhones in use and 2.5bn smartphones in total, you can build a big company without thinking about the low end anymore?
    Benedict Evans
  • Echo, interfaces and friction October 11, 2016 2:46 am
    With Amazon's Echo, Snapchat Spectacles or the Apple Watch, we're unbundling not just components but apps, and especially pieces of apps. We take an input or an output from an app on a phone and move it to a new context. We remove friction, but we also remove choices. 
    Benedict Evans
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