• Ways to think about machine learning June 22, 2018 11:59 pm
    We're now four or five years into the current explosion of machine learning, and pretty much everyone has heard of it, and every big company is working on projects around ‘AI’. We know this is a Next Big Thing. I don't think, though, that we yet have a settled sense of quite what machine learning means - what it will mean for tech companies or for companies in the broader economy, how to think structurally about what new things it could enable, and what important problems it might actually be able to solve.
    Benedict Evans
  • The death of the newsfeed April 3, 2018 12:09 am
    What do we do now that there’s more in the newsfeed than we can possibly read? Can the algorithmic sample ever actually work, or do we swing back to 1:1 messaging? How do Stories rebundle that? And what happens to all the traffic that the newsfeed provides? 
    Benedict Evans
  • Steps to autonomy March 27, 2018 6:28 pm
    We talk a lot about levels of autonomy, and ask when the first ‘fully autonomous’ cars will appear. That might be the wrong way to look at it - there will be lots of different kinds of ‘autonomy’, and the ‘where’ and ‘what’ may matter as much as the ‘when’. 
    Benedict Evans
  • Bridges and LIDAR March 13, 2018 2:10 pm
    A bridge product says 'of course x is the right way to do this, but the technology or market environment to deliver x is not available yet, or is too expensive, and so here is something that gives some of the same benefits but works now.'  Sometimes that’s a great business, and sometimes it’s doomed. 
    Benedict Evans
  • Smart homes and vegetable peelers February 3, 2018 7:52 pm
    How many smart things will we have in our homes? What will make sense? How much room is there here for startups? Will all these devices be connected to Alexa, and if they are, will it matter?
    Benedict Evans
  • TV, retail, advertising and cascading collapses January 16, 2018 2:07 pm
    How do fundamental, structural changes in TV, in retail and in advertising interlock and accelerate each other, and what cascading effects might there be?
    Benedict Evans
  • The Amazon machine December 12, 2017 11:24 pm
    Amazon is a machine to make a machine, and the machine it makes is more Amazon. 
    Benedict Evans
  • Presentation: Ten Year Futures December 6, 2017 8:01 pm
    This autumn I gave the keynote at Andreessen Horowitz's annual 'Tech Summit' conference, talking about the state of tech and what's likely to happen in the next decade: mobile, Google / Apple / Facebook / Amazon, innovation, machine learning, autonomous cars, mixed reality and crypto-currencies.
    Benedict Evans
  • Fashion, Maslow and Facebook's control of social October 27, 2017 11:01 pm
    The fashion industry does not set fashions - it proposes them. It tries to work out the mood and the zeitgeist and looks for ideas that might express that. The same, increasingly, for Facebook - it cannot really decide how people use its products or what they see, only propose. 
    Benedict Evans
  • The scale of tech winners October 13, 2017 5:26 pm
    We all know, I think, that there are now far more smartphones than PCs, and we all know that there are far more people online now than there used to be, and we also, I think, mostly know that big tech companies today are much bigger than the big tech companies of the past. It’s useful, though, to put some real numbers on that, and to get a sense of use how much the scale has changed, and what that means.
    Benedict Evans
  • Winner-takes-all effects in autonomous cars August 22, 2017 8:21 pm
    What winner-take-all effects could there be in autonomous cars? Are there network effects that would allow the top one or two companies to squeeze the rest out, as happened in smartphone or PC operating systems? Or might there be room for five or ten companies to compete indefinitely? And for what layers in the stack does victory give power in other layers? 
    Benedict Evans
  • GAFA's org structures as a platform for growth. August 9, 2017 8:29 pm
    Earlier this week I did a podcast with my colleague Steven Sinofsky talking about the management structures of Google, Apple. Facebook and Amazon ('GAFA'). These companies now have around 10 times more employees than they did a decade ago, yet they still manage to function, and function extremely well, producing a stream of great work. The interesting thing is that the management structures that they've used to achieve that are actually very different.
    Benedict Evans
  • Content isn't king July 16, 2017 10:30 am
    People in tech and media have been saying that ‘content is king’ for a long time - perhaps since the VHS/Betamax battle of the early 1980s, and perhaps longer. Content and access to content was a strategic lever for technology. I’m not sure how much this is still true.  Music and books don’t matter much to tech anymore, and TV probably won’t matter much either. 
    Benedict Evans
  • Creation and consumption July 14, 2017 9:49 pm
    It's common to say that PCs are for creation and mobile only for consumption, but both parts of this are wrong: most people never created on PCs, and far more is created on mobile. 
    Benedict Evans
  • Not even wrong - ways to dismiss technology May 26, 2017 6:32 pm
    How do we get beyond 'that's a toy!' and 'but everything looked like a toy!', and try actually to understand whether a new technology might matter? What are valid lines of reasoning, and what statements are 'not even wrong'?
    Benedict Evans
  • Ten Year Futures April 25, 2017 10:29 pm
    Looking forward 10 years, there are three primary technology that will change everything - cars, augmented reality and machine learning. But in the meantime, there ere huge changes around advertising, TV and retail that come from consumer behavior and industry dynamics, not tech, but will change just as much. 
    Benedict Evans
  • The first decade of augmented reality April 11, 2017 10:21 pm
    If augmented reality is the next multitouch - the next universal platform - what would that look like? What might we build?
    Benedict Evans
  • Cars and second order consequences March 30, 2017 5:37 am
    Electric and autonomy are rolling through the car industry, changing everything about it. But though they transform gasoline and car accidents, they could change a lot more besides - everything from cigarettes to parking. It's the second-order consequences that are hardest to see, but most interesting.
    Benedict Evans
  • The end of smartphone innovation March 23, 2017 3:45 pm
    Smartphones are still evolving, but we're on the upper slopes of the S-Curve. This means innovation is slowing, but also that iOS and Android are now unassailable. It's time to focus on what's next - voice, machine learning and, especially, augmented reality. 
    Benedict Evans
  • Voice and the uncanny valley of AI March 9, 2017 10:26 pm
    The trap that some voice UIs fall into is that you pretend the users are talking to HAL 9000 when actually, you've just built a better IVR, and have no idea how to get from the IVR to HAL. How can we find the mental models for this to work - to bring less rather than more friction? 
    Benedict Evans
Advertisements